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EconStatsCraft › India - state map
Shades India by state or union territory. Spellings that differ across sources - Orissa and Odisha, Pondicherry and Puducherry, NCT of Delhi, UP, MP, TN - all match. Drawn on an equal-area projection, so a large state is large because it is large.
A state map has every hazard of the world map and one more that bites harder: at a sub-national scale the regions are units of administration rather than units of anything the data is about. State boundaries were not drawn to make statistics comparable, so a state-level average can be an average of two completely different places, and the colour hides that.
Any state-level Indian data: GSDP, per-capita income, literacy, unemployment, power consumption, fiscal deficit, poll results. Also the natural first look before a state panel regression, because it shows you whether the variation is north-south, coastal-inland, or neither.
The estimate shown for state s is an aggregate over its constituent units, \bar{v}_s=\sum_{i\in s}w_iv_i/\sum_{i\in s}w_i. The MODIFIABLE AREAL UNIT PROBLEM is that \bar{v}_s depends on where the boundaries fall, and redrawing them changes the map and can change the sign of any relationship computed from it. Gerrymandering is the deliberate exploitation of exactly this arithmetic. It is not a defect of the chart - the aggregation is real - but the map presents one particular partition as though it were the only one.
A state map showing literacy against income, both averaged to the state, can produce a strong positive relationship while the individual-level relationship within every state is flat or negative. Robinson found precisely this in 1950: the correlation between illiteracy and being foreign-born was +0.53 across US states and -0.11 across individuals. The state map is not wrong - those really are the state averages - but the conclusion nearly every reader draws from it is.
| If you see this | It means | Do this |
|---|---|---|
| A striking regional pattern | Check the sample size per state | Sparse states produce extreme values by noise |
| Conclusions about individuals | Ecological fallacy | Areal averages do not license individual claims |
| A state missing entirely | Boundary vintage mismatch | Align the geometry to the data year |
| Results changing when districts are used | The modifiable areal unit problem | Real, not an error. Report both scales |
| Unweighted state averages | A small state counts as much as a large one | Weight by population |
| Adjacent states looking alike | Spatial autocorrelation | Test it before modelling |
Spatial autocorrelation, for whether neighbours resemble each other. Aggregate, for the same hazard without the geography.
World map · Bivariate map · Flow map · India - district map
Line chart · Area chart · Bar chart · Stacked bar · Scatter plot · Bubble chart · Histogram · Box plot · Pie chart · Heat map · Rebased to 100 · Lorenz curve and Gini
World map · Bivariate map · Flow map · India - state map · India - district map
Descriptive statistics · Summary by group · Two-way table · Classical statistical tests
Multiple regression (OLS) · Logit / Probit · Tobit (censored) · Truncated regression · Multinomial logit · Ordered logit / probit · Quantile regression · Poisson / Negative binomial
Time-varying coefficients (Kalman) · Unit root tests · Correlogram (ACF / PACF) · ARIMA / SARIMA · Rolling-origin cross-validation · Theta method · Unobserved components · STL forecasting · Forecast combination · Markov regime switching · Change frequency (resample) · ARCH / GARCH volatility · Decompose & filter · Spectral analysis · Exponential smoothing · Forecast accuracy
Yield curve (Nelson–Siegel / Svensson) · Dynamic factor model · Dynamic regression (ARIMAX) · Structural VAR · VAR · Granger causality · Cointegration · VECM · ARDL & bounds test
Panel regression · Panel cointegration tests · Heterogeneous panel: Mean Group & PMG · Gravity model of trade · Dynamic panel GMM · Panel diagnostics · Panel unit-root tests
Principal components (PCA) · Factor analysis · Cluster analysis
Conjoint analysis · MaxDiff (best–worst scaling) · TURF - reach of a product line · Price sensitivity (Van Westendorp) · Market basket analysis · Perceptual map · Scale reliability (Cronbach’s alpha) · Key driver analysis
Spatial autocorrelation · Spatial regression · Heckman selection · Instrumental variables (2SLS) · Difference-in-differences · Staggered difference-in-differences · Regression discontinuity · Matching & weighting · Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition
Black–Scholes option pricing · Bond price, duration & convexity · Merton distance to default · EMI / home loan planner · CAPM / beta estimation · Multi-factor model · Portfolio optimization · Value at Risk & Expected Shortfall · Performance & drawdown · Time value of money & NPV/IRR · Equity valuation (DDM, FCF, residual income) · Cost of capital (WACC) · Binomial option pricing · Option strategies (payoff & profit) · Forwards, futures & swaps · Credit risk & Basel capital · Extreme value theory (tail risk)
Life table · Life annuity · Life insurance pricing · Chain ladder reserving · Buhlmann credibility · Survival analysis · Mortality graduation · Aggregate loss model · Ruin probability · Multi-state Markov model · Loss severity fitting
Monte Carlo experiment · F-test, Wald & Chow · Structural breaks & stability
Regression vs machine learning · Ridge / Lasso / Elastic Net · Random forest · Gradient boosting
EconStatsCraft rigorous, plain-spoken econometrics
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